We are into the business end of the sporting event, FIFA 2022. As we have been doing for last couple of weeks, let us evaluate the Oxfor MAthematical Model. Even though the much anticipated semi-finals are yet to be kicked off, we can do the full evaluation. It is because, even now we know that the oxford predication for the final wont be a correct, as Brazil and belgium are out of the competition.
Let us analysis the stage wise accuracy rates.
Problem with this accuracy calculation is that the error is propagated. Since Oxford predicted that the Belgium will feature in the final in which they were out of the competition from the first round, that is reflected at every stage.
Would you accept this model with just over 50% of accuracy. That means it is just over the ad-hoc probability prediction. As we have been insisting, predicting the results outcome of a sport event, is not yet successful, it least for the moment.
We have been discussing the FIFA results prediction that was developed by Oxford University. Since the first round is completed, we can now do a model evaluation with the actual data vs. predicted data. Oxford mathematical model has two components, predicting the teams for the next round and the teams' position at each group.
As we saw in FIFA 2022, there were many surprises. While Japan, Australia, Morocco, and South Korea advanced to the next round, we saw Belgium (The number 2 ranked team), four times champions, and Germany out of the world cup in the first round.
Following is the final 16s.
Out of the Oxford predictions for the next round, 9 out of 16 are correct, which is 65% of accuracy. Let us look at the group-wise rankings. Out of the 32 positions, only 11 were correct, meaning the accuracy is less than 35%.
When the group-wise analysis was made. All Group F position predictions were wrong, while there are no groups that all positions are correct.
When the position analysis was made, there were a few notable observations.
We can see a higher accuracy for positions 1 and 4. That means it is easy to predict the best and poorest teams. This is not again a hard part. However, their model could be better when predicting the number 2 and 3 positions. In fact, the number 3 position prediction accuracy is 9%.
Sport is all about fractions, inches, and moments. That is where the prediction of results is not difficult but impossible. If it is possible, it is not a sport.
No matter what level of mathematical models you can build, still predicting the result of a sport is extremely difficult, if not impossible. FIFA 2022 started with a lot of predictions, and we are just into the 4th day and 12th match, yet we have watched the two greatest upsets in the FIFA world cup.
The first, I would say it is the greatest upset of all time in which Saudi Arabia won against Messi's Argentina.
At the end of the first half, Argentina was leading 1-0, but in the next half, the oil nation scored two goals quickly. After the Saudi's first goal, the Argentinian giants were in disarray. In the end, most of the analytics said that crowd support for Saudi Arabia was one of the reasons for their surprising win.
The second match was between Japan and four times world cup winners (1954, 1974, 1990, 2014) Germany.
Germany was showing their class during the first half and scored the first goal. Germany has never lost a world cup match after 1954 after scoring the first goal. On the other hand, Japan has never won a world cup match after conceding a first goal. Even though statistics were not on their side, Japan won the match against Germany with a score line of 2-1. After the match, the analytics said that most of the Japanese players had played in the German football cup, which gave them an advantage over Germany.
How can we include crowd support and players' special features into mathematical modeling? I would say it is difficult, which is why sport is such an unpredictable and, thus, fantastic event. We can enjoy sports events only because of their unpredictable nature. If not, sport is not a sport, and let the sport be a sport.
After the Olympics, the world's most famous sporting event will raise its curtain today at Quater. The FIFA 2022 will be kicked off with 32 teams, and the obvious question would be "Who will be the winner". Will it be Brazil, Netherlands, Spain, Argentina, France, England, Belgium, or any other dark horses?
If you remember in FIFA 2010, Paul the Octopus predicted all the winners of the matches that involved Germany and the final between Spain and the Netherlands with an accuracy of 100%.
Paul the Octopus made friends and enemies on his own due to the predictions he made. Now in 2022, the University of Oxford has come up with a mathematical model to predict the winner.
The following figure is its prediction from the round of 16s.
According to the Oxford model, Brazil is the ultimate winner. However, looking at the recent, it will be a surprise.
Further, after 1998 defending champions did not perform well in the world cup finals. So France to be in the semi-finals is something against recent data.
I personally do not believe that predictions can be made for sports concerning its outcome. If you do that, I believe that will be the end of sports. Sport is beautiful because of the extremely high uncertainty. One touch or one move or one wrong decision may change the cause of the game drastically. In 2002 FIFA saw a lot of such matches. Who would have expected the defending champion, France to be beaten by the African nation Senegal? Who would have thought France would be out of the world cup in the first round without any wins? Among all the surprises, South Korea made the headlines by reaching the Semifinals and becoming the giant killer of Poland, Portugal, Italy, and Spain.
