Prediction of FIFA results went wrong, AGAIN!

No matter what level of mathematical models you can build, still predicting the result of a sport is extremely difficult, if not impossible. FIFA 2022 started with a lot of predictions, and we are just into the  4th day and 12th match, yet we have watched the two greatest upsets in the FIFA world cup.

The first, I would say it is the greatest upset of all time in which Saudi Arabia won against Messi's Argentina.

At the end of the first half, Argentina was leading 1-0, but in the next half, the oil nation scored two goals quickly. After the Saudi's first goal, the Argentinian giants were in disarray. In the end, most of the analytics said that crowd support for Saudi Arabia was one of the reasons for their surprising win.  

The second match was between Japan and four times world cup winners (1954, 1974, 1990, 2014) Germany. 

Germany was showing their class during the first half and scored the first goal. Germany has never lost a world cup match after 1954 after scoring the first goal. On the other hand, Japan has never won a world cup match after conceding a first goal. Even though statistics were not on their side, Japan won the match against Germany with a score line of 2-1. After the match, the analytics said that most of the Japanese players had played in the German football cup, which gave them an advantage over Germany. 

How can we include crowd support and players' special features into mathematical modeling? I would say it is difficult, which is why sport is such an unpredictable and, thus, fantastic event. We can enjoy sports events only because of their unpredictable nature. If not, sport is not a sport, and let the sport be a sport. 

Who is the Next FIFA Champion?

After the Olympics, the world's most famous sporting event will raise its curtain today at Quater. The FIFA 2022 will be kicked off with 32 teams, and the obvious question would be "Who will be the winner". Will it be Brazil, Netherlands, Spain, Argentina, France, England, Belgium, or any other dark horses?

If you remember in FIFA 2010, Paul the Octopus predicted all the winners of the matches that involved Germany and the final between Spain and the Netherlands with an accuracy of 100%. 

Paul the Octopus made friends and enemies on his own due to the predictions he made. Now in 2022, the University of Oxford has come up with a mathematical model to predict the winner. 

The following figure is its prediction from the round of 16s. 

According to the Oxford model, Brazil is the ultimate winner. However, looking at the recent, it will be a surprise. 

Further, after 1998 defending champions did not perform well in the world cup finals. So France to be in the semi-finals is something against recent data. 

I personally do not believe that predictions can be made for sports concerning its outcome. If you do that, I believe that will be the end of sports. Sport is beautiful because of the extremely high uncertainty. One touch or one move or one wrong decision may change the cause of the game drastically. In 2002 FIFA saw a lot of such matches. Who would have expected the defending champion, France to be beaten by the African nation Senegal? Who would have thought France would be out of the world cup in the first round without any wins? Among all the surprises, South Korea made the headlines by reaching the Semifinals and becoming the giant killer of Poland, Portugal, Italy, and Spain.

Let the sport be a sport!

Predictions Went Wrong

Predictions are part and parcel of our life. With more available data, we are looking at driven predictions rather than sense-driven predictions. Predication has expanded many domains such as ecomics, productions, sports etc. However, last week, we saw two of such predictions went wrong. 

1. Whether predictions at T20I worldcup

First of all, pre-world cup favorites, India couldn't win the semi final while another pre tournmennt favorite, hosts, Aurtralia couldn't make even to the semi final. I am not going to consider that a wrong predictions as win/loss prediction in sports should fail in order to sport become more attractive. 

However, when England - Pakistan lock horns with each other at the Melbourne for the final, there were predictions that match will not be possible to stage due to rain. There was 95% probability for rain. Playing conditions were altered in order to accommodate rain. Additonal day was already announced even before the tournament. But with the prediction of rain, match duration was increased by two hours and ten overs were set to constitute a match.  However, match was played without any interruptions. There was a harmless drizzle for five to ten minutes.

What was Predicted

What was Actual

2. USA Mid Term Elections

Then the next prediction in USA mid term elections. It was expected to trump led republican to take over the senate, house and even the govenership easily. There was prediction of "red - wave" and trump's come back.. But at the end of the election, demoract was able to hold the power of senete with 50/50. (With the vice president twi breaker, they are narrowly holding the senete by one vote. Predications were expecting republicans to win 55 seats in senete. On the House, republicans were expecting to get 235 seats but they got 218 which is the cut of margin to win the state. (five seats yet to be called). Now many media organizations are calling to review the pre-election predictions.

Source: US midterm elections results 2022: live | US midterm elections 2022 | The Guardian

Finaly,we need to understand that every thing under the sun cannot be predicted even with the sofiticated technologies that are around.