Evaluation of Oxford Mathematical Model after First Round

We have been discussing the FIFA results prediction that was developed by Oxford University. Since the first round is completed, we can now do a model evaluation with the actual data vs. predicted data. Oxford mathematical model has two components, predicting the teams for the next round and the teams' position at each group. 

As we saw in FIFA 2022, there were many surprises. While Japan, Australia, Morocco, and South Korea advanced to the next round, we saw Belgium (The number 2 ranked team), four times champions, and Germany out of the world cup in the first round. 

Following is the final 16s.

Out of the Oxford predictions for the next round, 9 out of 16 are correct, which is 65% of accuracy. Let us look at the group-wise rankings. Out of the 32 positions, only 11 were correct, meaning the accuracy is less than 35%. 

When the group-wise analysis was made. All Group F position predictions were wrong, while there are no groups that all positions are correct. 

When the position analysis was made, there were a few notable observations.

We can see a higher accuracy for positions 1 and 4. That means it is easy to predict the best and poorest teams. This is not again a hard part. However, their model could be better when predicting the number 2 and 3 positions. In fact, the number 3 position prediction accuracy is 9%. 

Sport is all about fractions, inches, and moments. That is where the prediction of results is not difficult but impossible. If it is possible, it is not a sport.